An analytics & research company
Tafiti Labs studies how to forecast honestly, how markets really price risk, and how to build AI that checks its own work. Then we test it in products people use.
1Tafiti, in Swahili.
No product of ours takes the other side of a bet, runs a game of chance or awards a prize.
What we charge is the same whether a user wins or loses. Nothing we sell profits from a loss.
A claim reaches a page or a product only after it has been tested. What’s unproven is labelled unproven.
Our research uses aggregate, anonymised data only. Nothing personal is ever published.
§ 01Research
01
When a system says 70%, does it happen 70% of the time?
We build forecasts that are honest about uncertainty, and evaluation that can’t be fooled: independent samples, one method per claim, and gates that are allowed to say no.
Read more about Forecasting & calibration02
How well do real markets price risk?
Prices are forecasts too. We measure margins, disagreement between books and internal consistency, starting with African-facing sportsbooks, which the market-efficiency literature has largely skipped.
Read more about Market measurement03
Can a language model be trusted with facts that matter?
We design agents that gather their own evidence, check every extracted claim against it, and refuse rather than guess. Code, not the model, owns anything that touches money.
Read more about Trustworthy AI systems§ 02Method
Every result, in a paper or in a product, has to pass the same rules. They were learned the hard way, and they apply to our own work first.
Box 1 · The discipline
Every claim names its data, its sample size and its method.
Statistics are computed on independent events, never inflated by repeated rows of the same one.
A result that only appears under a favourable method is a bug report about the method.
An evaluation that admits nothing isn’t broken. Empty can be the honest answer.
What we can’t resolve, we name. We don’t estimate it.
§ 03Publications
Every paper is posted to arXiv before it appears anywhere else, this page included. The first manuscripts are in preparation.
| Title | Area | Venue | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
No entries yet · papers appear here once they’re on arXivNo entries yet.Papers appear here once they’re on arXiv. | |||
§ 04Work
The lab builds products to test its research in the real world. Each carries its own name; Tafiti Labs stands behind all of them.
AI football betting assistant on WhatsApp, Telegram and the web. Priced predictions and booking codes across eleven bookmakers in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia and South Africa.
§ 05People
Tafiti Labs was founded by Ololade Babatunde and George Thamer Francis.
Meet the people
Ololade Babatunde
George Thamer Francis
§ 06Contact
Research questions, partnerships and press.
Tafiti Labs · Lagos, Nigeria